VISTAGE-MIER CEO Confidence Index

Note: All component questions are scored as the percent giving favorable replies minus the percent for unfavorable plus 100. The VISTAGE-MIER CEO Confidence Index is the sum of the components calculated as a percentage of the level recorded in 2nd quarter 2003 survey.

Results for 2010 Quarter 3

CONFIDENCE WAVERS

The Vistage-MIER CEO Confidence Index declined 14.7 points quarter-on-quarter to settle lower at 114.4 points in 3Q2010. All six of the Index’s component indices were lower. The declines suggest that CEO confidence is wavering. In the previous quarter, the Index had risen to its historical high of 129.1 points. It has remained above the 100-point benchmark, the boundary at which the opposing forces of optimism and pessimism balance out, for five consecutive quarters.

The survey results are in line with what other indicators are suggesting, i.e. the Malaysian economy will slow down in the second half of 2010. After having trended upwards for a year from their recent lows, both MIER’s Business Conditions Index and Consumer Sentiments Index seem to be losing steam. In the second quarter, the BCI lost 4.4 points quarter-on-quarter to settle lower at 119.6 points, while the CSI declined 3.8 points to settle at 110.4 points.

Latest GDP figures show that the Malaysian economy has indeed been slowing down. In 2Q2010, GDP grew 8.9% year-on-year, lower than the previous quarter’s spectacular 10.1%. Softening external demand, which will filter into slowing incomes and therefore domestic demand in the months ahead, should result in further moderation of growth. In spite of this, with 1H2010 GDP growth already at 9.5%, it is likely that growth for the whole of 2010 should still be above 6%. MIER’s GDP forecast for 2010 remains at 6.5%.

Download the full 2010 Q3 VISTAGE-MIER CEO Confidence Index Results Report (PDF 651KB)

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